12/04/2026
Next week, the US-Iran negotiations will remain the core focus of the US and even the global markets. At the same time, investors’ attention will also turn to the start of the new earnings season, with several well-known companies set to release their quarterly results, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, PepsiCo, TSMC, and Netflix.
On the Federal Reserve front, several officials will deliver speeches, and their remarks may further shed light on the future monetary policy outlook—especially after the March CPI report showed that US inflation rose to its highest level in two years, driven by rising energy prices. However, core inflation data indicates that the full impact of the oil crisis has not yet been fully reflected in core prices.
In terms of economic data, the US March Producer Price Index (PPI) is about to be released. The market expects the overall PPI to rise by 1.2% month-on-month, and the core PPI to increase by 0.5%, the same as the growth rate in February; industrial production growth may slow to 0.1%, and existing home sales are expected to drop from 4.09 million units in February to 4.01 million units. In addition, other regional economic activity indicators such as import and export prices, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, capital flow data, as well as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released one after another. In other parts of the Americas, Canada’s new housing starts data and Brazil’s retail sales data will also attract close market attention.
In Europe, the number of newly released data this week is relatively limited, and market focus will continue to be on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine and the war in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, both of which are important energy supply sources for the European economy. The final March inflation data for the euro zone and its major member states, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Norway will quantify the initial impact of the surge in energy prices following the outbreak of the Middle East war; in addition, Germany’s wholesale price data will also reflect the impact of tight liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.
In the monetary policy field, the European Central Bank will release the follow-up report of its last monetary policy decision. In terms of economic data, the euro zone and the United Kingdom will release February trade balance and industrial production data, which have always attracted close market attention due to the US tariff hikes; at the same time, retail sales data for the United Kingdom and Turkey will also be released simultaneously. In terms of earnings reports, companies such as ASML, LVMH, Hermès, and BMW will disclose their quarterly results. At the political level, Hungary’s parliamentary elections will attract close global attention, as the election will affect EU policies and its relations with other major economies. Incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has used his veto power many times.
The Chinese market will usher in a series of important economic data, providing investors with new references to understand China’s economic performance. The market expects China’s Q1 GDP growth rate to rise to 5.0% from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025; China’s March trade surplus may expand slightly to 112 billion US dollars, higher than 101.9 billion US dollars in the same period last year. At the same time, the growth rates of industrial production and retail sales in March are expected to slow down, the unemployment rate will drop slightly from 5.3% to 5.2%, and new RMB loans are expected to further increase to 3.4 trillion RMB.
In other Asian and Pacific countries and regions, there are relatively few economic data releases in Japan for February. It is expected that machinery orders in the month will decline again, and the Reuters Tankan Index and the final industrial production data will also be released one after another. In India, the annual consumer inflation rate in March is expected to rise to 3.48% from the previous 3.21%, and the wholesale price index is expected to increase from 2.13% to 3.0%.
In the Australian market, the NAB Business Confidence Survey and the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index will reflect the current market sentiment; the labor market is also closely watched, with an expected increase of about 20,000 new jobs in March and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.3%. In addition, Singapore will release GDP and trade data, South Korea will issue unemployment rate data, and Malaysia, Israel, and Saudi Arabia will also successively disclose inflation data.
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