09/04/2026
- Market Review
Gold has shown a clear one-sided downtrend after a sharp rally in the past two trading sessions. On the 1-hour chart, the price pulled back continuously from the stage high near 4850, hitting a low of 4695, and then found temporary support in the 4710-4720 range. As of the current quote of 4714.23, the price is in a weak consolidation pattern within the descending channel. - Core Technical Indicator Analysis
Price Structure & Trend
The price has formed a clear descending trend line (extending downward from the 4850 high) on the 1-hour chart, with a bearish structure of “lower highs and lower lows”. The Bollinger Bands (red and blue lines) are opening downward, and the price continues to run below the middle band, confirming that the short-term trend is dominated by bears.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands are in a downward divergence pattern, with the upper, middle, and lower bands moving down synchronously. The price is under pressure below the middle band and is currently running close to the lower band, indicating a technical rebound demand after the short-term oversold. However, the continuous downward movement of the middle band suppresses the rebound space. If the rebound fails to break through the 4740-4750 area of the middle band, the bearish trend will continue.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The 14-period RSI is currently at 43.1257, below the 50 neutral line. Although it has exited the previous oversold zone, it has not broken through the 50 bull-bear watershed, showing that the bearish force is still dominant, the bullish momentum is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sufficient momentum support.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
In the MACD indicator, the DIF line (-8.436) is still running below the DEA line (0.896), and the green histogram continues to shrink but has not completely disappeared. It shows that the bearish momentum is gradually weakening, but the golden cross reversal has not been completed. The short-term is only a technical correction in the decline, not a trend reversal signal.
- Key Support & Resistance Levels
Key Resistance Levels: First resistance at 4740-4750 (Bollinger middle band + lower edge of the previous consolidation range), second resistance at 4780-4790 (descending trend line + previous decline starting point), strong resistance at 4820-4830 (near the stage high).
Key Support Levels: First support at 4700-4695 (recent low), second support at 4660-4650 (upper edge of the previous consolidation range), strong support at 4630-4620 (Bollinger lower band extension).
- Trading Strategy & Operation Suggestions
- Trend Judgment
The short-term 1-hour cycle bearish trend is clear. The current price is in a weak consolidation after the decline, and the rebound is a technical correction. There is no trend reversal signal. The operation is mainly selling on rallies, and chasing long is cautious. - Entry Strategy
Short Opportunity: When the price rebounds to the 4740-4750 area and is under pressure, you can place a short order, set the stop loss above 4765, the first target is 4700-4695, and the second target is 4660-4650.
Long Opportunity: Only when the price effectively breaks through 4750 and stands firm, and the MACD completes the golden cross and the RSI breaks through 50, you can take a light position to test long, set the stop loss below 4720, target 4780-4790, and strictly control the position.
- Risk Warning
The current gold trend is greatly affected by the US dollar index, Fed monetary policy expectations and geopolitics. Technically, we need to be alert to the trend reversal caused by sudden news. When operating, strictly set the stop loss, control the position, and avoid contrarian operation.
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
