21/04/2026
- Market Overview
As of 10:30 Beijing Time on April 21, 2026, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $4,803 per ounce, showing a high-level volatile correction. The price came under pressure from around $4,832 at the start of the session, dipping to a low of $4,780, and is currently struggling around the $4,800 psychological level. - Technical Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)
From the provided 1-hour candlestick chart:
Trend and Moving Averages: After rebounding above $4,830 along the ascending trendline, the price showed clear signs of pullback pressure. Short-term moving averages have turned downward, and the price has now broken below the previous ascending trendline support, entering a phased adjustment.
Key Support and Resistance: The primary resistance zone is at $4,818-$4,830 (previous rebound highs and trendline counter-pressure). The immediate support lies at $4,780 (the lower edge of the recent consolidation range), with stronger support at $4,750 (the starting point of the prior deep V-shaped rebound).
Indicator Signals:
The 14-period RSI currently reads 46.78, having retreated from overbought territory to a neutral-bearish zone, indicating fading short-term bullish momentum.
The MACD lines have turned downward from above the zero line, with the histogram shrinking, signaling the release of short-term bearish pressure.
Multiple large-bodied bearish candles have appeared recently, accompanied by a break below moving averages, forming an initial short-term bearish bias. However, key support levels remain unbroken, reflecting growing two-way volatility.
- Fundamental Analysis
Geopolitical Risks: The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on April 22, with rising risks of negotiation collapse. Events such as the US seizure of Iranian vessels and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support gold’s safe-haven premium, limiting its downside.
Fed Policy Expectations: Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have cooled, with a slight rebound in the US dollar index exerting short-term pressure on gold. A Fed official hearing is scheduled for tonight; hawkish remarks could further weigh on gold prices.
Upcoming Economic Data: US March retail sales and pending home sales data are due today. Stronger-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady, pressuring gold, while weak data could offer a rebound catalyst.
- Intraday Trading Strategy
Gold is currently in a high-level correction phase with heightened volatility, suggesting a range-bound approach:
Light short positions can be considered near the $4,818-$4,830 resistance zone, with a stop-loss above $4,835 and targets at $4,790-$4,780.
Light long positions can be attempted on a bounce from the $4,780-$4,775 support zone, with a stop-loss below $4,770 and targets at $4,805-$4,815.
A break below the $4,770 support would confirm a stronger bearish trend, opening a move toward $4,750. Conversely, a break above $4,830 would signal a potential resumption of the bullish trend, targeting $4,850.
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
