14/04/2026
Boosted by optimistic expectations for Iran nuclear deal negotiations, the S&P 500 Index has successfully erased its projected losses since the start of 2026 and returned to an upward trajectory. This trend is mainly driven by comments from former US President Donald Trump — despite the impasse in US-Iran peace talks and the United States’ initiation of a maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump stated that Iran still hopes to reach an agreement, a remark that pushed stocks to close at the day’s highs. Meanwhile, the earnings season got off to a lackluster start, with Goldman Sachs Group’s stock price falling.
Specifically, the S&P 500 Index rose 1%, hitting its highest level since late February. As of the close of trading on April 13 (US Eastern Time), the index stood at 6,886.24 points, up 69.35 points on the day. In the commodity market, Brent crude oil prices rose 3% to around $98 per barrel, though giving back some of the morning’s gains; this upward trend is also closely related to the tense US-Iran geopolitical situation, as previous conflicts in the Middle East have driven significant fluctuations in energy prices.
In terms of individual stock performance, Goldman Sachs Group’s stock price fell 1.9%. While the group’s equities business achieved record revenue growth, revenue from its Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) business fell short of expectations, ultimately offsetting the positive impact from the equities business and weighing on the stock price. It is reported that Goldman Sachs achieved relatively high year-ago同期 FICC revenue in 2025, but failed to maintain this momentum at the start of the 2026 earnings season[superscript:11].
Currently, the US-Iran war has entered its seventh week, and the United States officially launched a maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz recently. The US side announced that starting from April 13, it will exercise control over all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, while Iran responded strongly, stating that it has full control over the Strait of Hormuz and warning that the proximity of external military ships will be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Trump’s statement that Iran is still willing to negotiate became a key driver for the stock market to extend its gains, but the actual progress of the negotiations is not optimistic — the US-Iran talks held in Islamabad over the weekend have ended in failure. This was the highest-level face-to-face contact between the two countries since the 1979 Tehran hostage crisis, and no consensus was reached in the end. Iran attributed the negotiation impasse to the United States, and the Tehran side also did not confirm whether further talks would be held on Monday.
Regarding the current market situation, Ulrich Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas and Global Head of Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: “Given the economic costs of rising oil prices and the uncertainty surrounding developments, we believe investors should avoid trying to ‘trade’ geopolitics.” Notably, UBS recently lowered its 2026 target for the S&P 500 Index, reducing the year-end target from 7,700 points to 7,500 points to reflect the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict, but still maintained an “Attractive” rating on US equities.
Meanwhile, the US stock earnings season has officially kicked off, with investors paying close attention to corporate operating conditions. They are eager to learn three core issues from corporate executives: the operational risks brought by the US-Iran war, the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence technology, and concerns related to the private credit sector. According to analysts’ forecasts, the earnings of S&P 500 constituent companies are expected to achieve an annual growth rate of about 12% in the first quarter of 2026.
Michael Wilson, strategist at Morgan Stanley, offered a relatively optimistic view. He believes that strong corporate earnings have provided “protection” for the S&P 500 Index, preventing it from falling more sharply, and suggested that investors should be prepared to increase their risk exposure even if the Iran conflict persists. Previously, Michael Wilson predicted that the S&P 500 Index is expected to rise 16% in the next year, driven by factors such as corporate earnings growth.
In other asset classes, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to around 3.77%; the US dollar reversed its morning gains, falling slightly by 0.2%; gold prices declined, approaching $4,765 per ounce.
Notably, the latest surge in crude oil prices, coupled with the significant rise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March, is refocusing the bond market’s attention on inflation. Data shows that the US CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in March, both significantly higher than the previous values. Among them, energy prices soared 10.9% month-on-month, becoming the core driver of inflation rebound[superscript:12]. Affected by this, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 2.49% earlier on Monday, hitting its highest level since June 1997, before paring some gains. This is also the first time the yield has exceeded the high during the 1998-1999 “Funds Management Agency shock” in nearly 29 years[superscript:10]. In the United States, money market data shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before December this year is less than one-fifth. Previously, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have cooled significantly due to the inflation rebound, and some analysts have warned that if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may not rule out restarting interest rate hikes.
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