27/04/2026
Affected by the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil inventories have experienced an “extreme” decline, prompting Goldman Sachs Group to raise its oil price forecast.
In a report released on April 27, Goldman Sachs analysts Damien Courvalin and Yulia Zhestkova Griggsby stated that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to reach $90 per barrel, an increase from the previous forecast of $80 per barrel. At the same time, the bank also raised its oil price forecasts for the current quarter and the third quarter, marking the latest in a series of recent forecast revisions by the institution.
The analysts said: “We estimate that a 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction in crude oil production in the Persian Gulf has led to a record decline in global oil inventories of 11 to 12 million bpd in April. The extreme inventory decline is unsustainable, and if the supply shock persists for a longer period, a larger decline in demand may be needed to achieve balance.”
The Iran war has completely disrupted the global oil market, and the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the daily traffic volume of this key oil transportation choke point to almost zero. Affected by the disruption of millions of barrels of daily oil supply in the region, the price of Brent crude oil has risen by nearly 50% since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, a trend that may further push up global inflation and restrain global economic growth.
The analysts added: “We now expect oil exports from the Gulf region to return to normal by the end of June, delayed from the previous forecast of mid-May, and the recovery rate of oil production in the region will also slow down. Given the net upside risk to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, the risk of refined product shortages, and the unprecedented scale of this supply shock, the current economic risks are much higher than we predicted based solely on the crude oil baseline scenario.”
Goldman Sachs pointed out that due to supply disruptions, the global oil market will face a supply gap of 9.6 million bpd in the current quarter, compared with a supply surplus in the same period last year.
According to the latest outlook, Brent crude oil is expected to average $100 per barrel in the current quarter and $93 per barrel in the third quarter. As of the latest trading, Brent crude oil futures prices are slightly below $108 per barrel, on track to rise for the sixth consecutive trading day, which would mark the longest winning streak in more than a year if achieved.
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