22/04/2026
After US President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, US stock index futures rose sharply, while the US dollar edged slightly lower. This news boosted investors’ cautious optimism.
The market generally expects that the easing of US-Iran tensions will effectively reduce oil prices and boost global economic growth. Affected by this, S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose 0.6%. Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for crude oil, fluctuated and hovered around $98.60 per barrel; meanwhile, the US dollar, a preferred safe-haven asset during the conflict, weakened simultaneously.
In contrast to the positive performance of US stock futures, Asian stock markets opened slightly under pressure. As investors continued to weigh the duration of the Middle East situation, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.3% at the opening.
The extension of the ceasefire agreement came one day before the original agreement was due to expire. Trump announced the indefinite extension of the ceasefire, even though plans for a new round of talks between the US and Iran had collapsed. The US side stated that it would suspend new military operations but would continue to block the key Strait of Hormuz, where traffic is currently almost completely paralyzed.
Although global stock markets have gradually recovered the losses caused by the war, and crude oil prices have correspondingly reduced the risk premium, the current market is still caught in a tug-of-war between cautious optimism and concerns about the Middle East situation. This complex background may restrain market risk appetite and exacerbate the volatility of various asset prices driven by news events in the short term.
Christopher Wong, strategist at OCBC Bank, analyzed: “Both the United States and Iran may be trying to consolidate their influence, playing a game of who will concede first. Regardless of the outcome, the suspense during this period may lead to a decline in risk appetite, but once either side concedes, risk assets may rise. Therefore, the current two-way game situation is very active.”
Notably, US Vice President Pence originally planned to travel to Pakistan to restart negotiations with Iran, but Iran refused to attend on the grounds that the demands put forward by the US were unreasonable. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency clearly stated that Iran has no possibility of participating in negotiations at present.
Trump’s announcement to extend the ceasefire was in stark contrast to his previous remarks. On Monday, Trump stated clearly in a telephone interview that he was “highly unlikely” to extend the ceasefire if no agreement was reached.
In other market sectors, the price of gold rose 0.5% to $4,745 per ounce; the price of silver rose 1% to $77.60 per ounce. Earlier, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.5%, matching its longest winning streak on record. US Treasury bond prices maintained the losses during the US stock trading session, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield basically flat at 4.29%.
In addition, traders also focused on analyzing the latest US economic data. The data showed that US retail sales recorded the largest annual increase, indicating that despite the surge in gasoline prices caused by the war, US consumers still maintained their spending momentum on various goods.
At the same time, Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, stated that the Federal Reserve needs a new framework to deal with persistent inflation, but did not disclose more details. He also emphasized that the US President has not asked him to commit to specific interest rate decisions.
Warsh added: “The President has nominated me for this position, and if I am confirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman, I will act independently.”
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
