22/04/2026
- Technical Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)
The 1-hour chart of XAUUSD currently shows a clear bottoming-out rebound pattern, with intensified battles between bulls and bears.
Moving Averages & Trend Structure:Previously suppressed by the moving average system, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping to as low as $4,664/oz near $4,667/oz, followed by a significant V-shaped reversal. Currently, the price has rebounded to around $4,755/oz, with consecutive bullish candles forming a breakout above the previous downtrend line. Short-term moving averages have begun to turn upward, forming initial bullish support signals.
Indicator Signals:
RSI(14): Currently at 49.58, the RSI has rebounded rapidly from the oversold zone to the neutral range, indicating a sharp decline in bearish momentum and a balance between buying and selling pressure. It has not yet entered the overbought zone, suggesting room for further upward continuation in the rebound.
MACD: The MACD histogram has turned positive from negative, with the two lines forming a bullish crossover below the zero line. This signals the exhaustion of downward momentum and the gradual dominance of bullish momentum in the short term, forming a bullish divergence signal.
Bollinger Bands: The price rebounded from near the lower band and is now approaching the middle band. If it can stabilize above the middle band, it is expected to challenge the upper band in subsequent trading.
Key Support & Resistance Levels:
Support: $4,730/oz (intraday starting point), $4,700/oz (psychological level + previous consolidation platform)
Resistance: $4,765-$4,770/oz (upper Bollinger Band + previous consolidation range top), $4,800/oz (key psychological level)
- Fundamental & Market Dynamics
Geopolitical Factors: Phased Changes in Risk Sentiment:The core focus of today’s market is the expiration of the temporary US-Iran ceasefire. Previously, markets feared an escalation of conflicts, providing support to gold prices through safe-haven demand. However, with the extension of the ceasefire agreement, risk aversion sentiment cooled temporarily, triggering a sharp sell-off in gold during the early Asian session. as market sentiment recovered and bargain hunting emerged at lower levels, gold prices rebounded rapidly, forming a “deep V” reversal. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a long-term support factor for gold prices, and further developments in the Middle East situation require continued monitoring.
Fed Policy Expectations: Persistent Short-Term Pressure:Better-than-expected US economic data has led the market to push back expectations for the first Fed rate cut from June to September or even December, with the number of expected rate cuts this year reduced to 1-2 times. The high interest rate environment keeps the opportunity cost of holding gold elevated, and the strength of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continues to weigh on gold prices, which was one of the core drivers of the previous sharp decline.
Market Trading Behavior: Bargain Hunting vs. Profit-Taking:After the sharp decline, selling pressure from profit-taking at high levels has been released, while significant bargain hunting has emerged at lower levels, supported by long-term central bank gold purchases, driving a technical rebound. Gold prices have broken above the $4,730 and $4,740/oz levels intraday, indicating the return of bullish momentum. However, the rebound still faces overhead pressure from trapped long positions, leading to continued high volatility in the short term.
- Trading Strategy & Outlook
Trading Recommendations
Short-Term Approach:
Gold prices are currently in a technical rebound phase after the decline, with bulls in control in the short term but facing strong overhead resistance. Aggressive investors can go long on light positions supported by $4,730/oz, targeting $4,765-$4,770/oz with a stop-loss below $4,700/oz. Conservative investors should wait for a confirmed breakout above $4,770/oz or a pullback to confirm support before entering positions, avoiding frequent trading in choppy markets.
Key Events to Watch:
Subsequent focus should be on US economic data, Fed official speeches, and further developments in the Middle East situation, which will drive short-term volatility in gold prices. If rate cut expectations are further delayed or geopolitical tensions escalate again, gold prices may experience significant fluctuations once more.
Market Outlook
In the short term, the current rebound is primarily a technical correction after the decline, with strong resistance in the $4,770-$4,800/oz range. Without a decisive breakout, gold prices may retest the $4,700/oz support level. In the medium to long term, the delayed Fed rate cut cycle and geopolitical uncertainty will keep gold prices in a wide range-bound pattern. New catalysts will be needed to confirm a new trend direction.
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
