19/04/2026
The outlook for the US economy will continue to hinge on the trajectory of the conflict with Iran and its impact on global energy prices. President Trump indicated that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program and cease targeting commercial vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, bolstering expectations of an imminent agreement.
The corporate earnings calendar will remain packed, with reports due from Tesla, Intel, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, American Express, Procter & Gamble, and Lam Research.
On the economic data front, the US will release March retail sales figures, which are forecast to climb 1.3%—the sharpest increase in a year—extending the streak of robust consumer spending. Meanwhile, the flash S&P Global PMIs for April will be published, following readings that reflected divergent effects of the Iran conflict on the nation’s manufacturing and services sectors. Other releases include pending home sales, projected to rise 0.5%, and February business inventories, which are expected to edge up marginally.
In monetary policy, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, will testify before Congress, where he is likely to elaborate on his views regarding the Fed’s appropriate balance sheet size.
Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada will see a busy week of economic data releases, headlined by March inflation figures that will reveal the initial impact of the conflict. Canada will also publish new home prices, retail sales, and its budget balance. Mexico will release mid-month inflation updates.
Flash PMIs for the Euro Area, Germany, France, and the UK will take center stage in the coming week. Across the board, expectations point to softer readings, with indices likely to decline, signaling slower expansion or a deeper contraction in both manufacturing and services.
In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is projected to fall to a one-year low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to decline further, hitting its weakest level since February 2025.
Beyond PMIs, the UK will release a raft of key data, including inflation, labor market indicators, and retail sales. Annual inflation is forecast to rise to 3.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.2%, remaining at its highest level since early 2021. Total average weekly earnings including bonuses are projected to grow 3.6%, the slowest pace since October 2020. Meanwhile, UK retail sales are expected to rebound in March, marking the third increase in four months.
Other notable releases include the Euro Area government deficit and debt figures, flash consumer confidence, and new car registrations. Germany will publish its producer price index, while the UK will release CBI surveys on industrial trends orders and business optimism. Switzerland will report its trade balance, and central bank rate decisions are due from Turkey and Russia.
On the corporate side, earnings highlights will feature L’Oréal, EssilorLuxottica, and ABB on Wednesday. Thursday will bring results from SAP, Safran, and Sanofi. In the UK, Associated British Foods will report on Tuesday. Spanish banks Banco Sabadell and Bankinter are due on Thursday. From Italy, Moncler and Saipem will release earnings on Tuesday, followed by Eni on Friday.
In China, no major economic data releases are scheduled for next week, but the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. Stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth and an unexpected rise in producer prices have given policymakers more leeway before considering further easing measures.
In Japan, attention will turn to March trade data, with exports seen accelerating to an 11.1% rise, widening the trade surplus to ¥1.1 trillion. Inflation data is likely to show the core rate accelerating to 1.8%, while flash April PMI readings are also due, with the manufacturing PMI expected to post a modest pickup in factory growth.
Flash PMIs will also be released by India and Australia. Elsewhere in the region, trade data is scheduled for release in New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia, while inflation figures will be published in New Zealand, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Labor market data is expected from Hong Kong and Taiwan, and South Korea will release its latest GDP figures. On the monetary policy front, Bank Indonesia and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will announce their respective policy rate decisions.
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