19/05/2026
Although US President Trump has stated that he will postpone launching new military strikes against Iran, market concerns about the situation in Iran have not subsided. Affected by this, global stock markets and oil prices have declined simultaneously, and the short-lived optimism brought about by Trump’s previous speech has completely faded.
In terms of stock markets, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Stock Index fell 0.5%, and US stock index futures edged down 0.1%. The core reason for the cautious market sentiment is the growing concern among investors about the transportation of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz — a strait connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that handles about 20% of the world’s oil transportation, and its transportation safety directly affects the stability of global energy supply. Among them, technology stocks performed particularly weakly, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropping 4.1%.
In terms of oil prices, Brent crude oil prices fell 2% to around $110 per barrel, with an intraday drop of as much as 2.8%. According to data from iFinD Financial Database, as of May 18, the closing price of Brent crude oil was $109.69 per barrel, and recent prices have fluctuated significantly due to geopolitical factors. Trump previously explained that the decision to cancel the strike plan against Iran was in response to appeals from Persian Gulf allies, adding that “serious negotiations are currently underway,” but Iran has not immediately confirmed that the two sides have restarted negotiations.
It is worth noting that Trump has repeatedly threatened to take new military actions against Iran recently, but has never put them into practice. He made it clear that if the two sides fail to reach an acceptable agreement, the United States is ready to launch an attack, but did not set a specific negotiation deadline. In other news, local time on May 17, Trump also had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the possibility of restarting military strikes against Iran, and will hold a meeting with the national security team on May 19 to further discuss options for military action against Iran, which has also exacerbated market concerns about the escalation of the situation.
In the bond market, Asian morning trading showed a mixed trend. Japanese and Australian government bonds rose slightly, while US Treasury bonds fell after sharp fluctuations during the US trading session, mainly due to market concerns that high oil prices will further intensify inflationary pressures. Data shows that the US 30-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly by 1 basis point to 5.13%, and the yield had climbed to its highest level since 2023 on Monday this week. In fact, the recent rise in oil prices and inflation concerns have continued to disturb the global bond market, leading to a sharp increase in bond yields in many countries including Japan and the United States.
Market analysis points out that the moderate fluctuations on Tuesday ended the sharp market volatility triggered by concerns over the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the previous weeks. Some time ago, investors temporarily ignored geopolitical risks, and the stock market once continued to rise driven by the artificial intelligence concept. Now, with the rise in bond yields in countries such as Japan and the United States, coupled with persistently high crude oil prices, the global market is facing a key test, which also increases the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time — currently, the Federal Reserve is in a period of power transition, and the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, is facing the tricky challenge of balancing inflation and interest rate cut demands, and the inflationary pressure brought by high oil prices has further limited the space for his policy adjustments.
In terms of other market dynamics, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the gold price remained basically flat, hovering around $4,560 per ounce. At the same time, the United States issued a new exemption order on Monday, allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded on tankers, after a previous exemption order expired a few days ago. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on the X platform that this new general license “will help stabilize the crude oil spot market.”
In addition, Japan’s economic growth rate at the beginning of the year was much higher than expected, which provided support for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates. However, it should be noted that according to previous data from Japan’s Cabinet Office, Japan’s GDP fell into negative growth in the third quarter of 2025, and whether the strong growth at the beginning of this year can be sustained still needs to be observed in subsequent economic data.
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