US Midterm Election Day: Tech Stocks Rally, Oil Prices Volatile, Strong Job Data Keeps Fed Hawkish

AI trading activity has picked up again, lifting US stock index futures as investors await the outcome of the US midterm elections.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%, following a 0.7% gain in the New York session. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3% in early Asian trading. Futures markets in South Korea and Taiwan edged higher, while Japanese stock futures dipped slightly as traders returned from holidays.

US chipmakers staged a strong rebound. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.6%, recovering from a sharp drop caused by worries over AI spending growth. The rally lifted the Nasdaq 100 by 0.7%. Super Micro Computer and Advanced Micro Devices both issued better-than-expected revenue outlooks, boosting market optimism. In addition, Meta Platforms’ first bond issuance in six months attracted robust investor demand.

On the commodity front, US crude oil prices rose to around $96.70 per barrel amid conflicting signals from US-Iran peace negotiations. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened after US job openings hit a four-month high on Tuesday.

The sustainability of the tech rebound hinges largely on midterm election results. A clear election outcome will remove major political uncertainty, allowing investors to refocus on AI capital expenditure and year-end geopolitical risks.

Millions of US voters cast ballots on Tuesday to decide control of Congress and numerous local issues. The first batch of polling stations closed at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. According to Polymarket betting markets, Democrats hold a roughly 95% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 77% chance of capturing the Senate, pointing to a potential Democratic sweep of both chambers.

Geopolitical risks remain in focus, keeping oil prices choppy. Diplomats revealed that after limited overnight US airstrikes, Washington and Tehran are reviewing new mediation proposals designed to defuse tensions and prevent a full-scale war.

The US labor market showed unexpected resilience, driving Treasury yields higher. Job openings surged to a four-month high in September, layoffs fell to the lowest level since March 2025, and voluntary quits edged up. Strong employment data gives Federal Reserve policymakers more room to stay focused on persistent inflation after keeping interest rates unchanged last week. The Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years back in September.

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