07/10/2026
Looking at the H4 chart of USOIL, crude oil has formed a clear downtrend recently. Candlesticks keep trading below key indicators, with bearish momentum dominating the 4-hour timeframe. From the Ichimoku Cloud, price has fallen beneath the cloud. The Tenkan-sen stays below the Kijun-sen, and the cloud zone now acts as strong resistance, confirming a bearish bias on the H4 cycle. The MACD remains below the zero line, meaning bearish momentum has not fully faded. Trading volume expanded during the decline, validating capital participation in this downward move.
Fundamentally, Brent crude climbed above $101 per barrel recently. Traders are weighing two competing factors: rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risks from vessel attacks linked to Iran. While geopolitical events offer upside support for oil prices, high interest rates and macro expectations cap gains. US Treasury yields remain elevated; the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%. Higher interest rates weigh on commodity valuations and limit oil rallies.
Technically, we see minor bullish candles at recent lows, which is only a temporary corrective bounce within the downtrend, not a confirmed trend reversal. The nearest resistance sits near 92.50. If price fails to break and hold above this level, the bearish trend is likely to resume. Immediate support is at the previous low around 88.20. A break below this level will open room for further declines.
Key factors to watch ahead: further escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions and the upcoming US corporate earnings season. Markets will assess whether AI investments by tech giants translate into actual profit growth. Shifts in global risk appetite will indirectly impact risk assets like crude oil. Persistently high US bond yields will continue to pressure commodities. In the short run, crude oil is expected to trade in a choppy range. Any bounce should be treated as a bearish correction, and bottom-fishing is not recommended.
Disclaimer: This analysis combines technical and fundamental commentary only, not trading advice. Crude oil prices are highly sensitive to sudden geopolitical news, strict risk management is required.
