09/05/2026
A rebounding job market has propelled the stock market to record highs. This trend has reinforced market confidence that the world’s largest economy remains resilient amid the energy shocks triggered by the Iran conflict.
Market participants expect steady economic growth to continuously drive corporate earnings higher. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index has risen for six consecutive weeks. Fueled by a recovery in AI-driven trading, the chip manufacturer index has surged by 11% since last Friday. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have declined this week. According to The Wall Street Journal, the United States and Iran are working with mediators to draft a memorandum of understanding, establishing a framework for one-month ceasefire negotiations.
The U.S. stated that Iran is expected to respond promptly to its latest ceasefire proposal. Nevertheless, potential conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz may rupture the one-month-old ceasefire agreement. Ismail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the semi-official Tasnim News Agency that Tehran is still evaluating the proposal pending further response.
While geopolitics remains the core driver of market movements, investors are closely monitoring the latest economic data to assess the war’s repercussions. Official figures show U.S. employers added jobs for the second straight month in April, marking the first consecutive two-month job growth in nearly a year, with the unemployment rate remaining stable.
Despite the robust nonfarm payroll report, underlying risks persist. Concerns over inflation have intensified public worries about personal finances and purchasing conditions, dragging U.S. consumer confidence down to a historic low in recent weeks.
Commenting on the market’s resilience amid widespread uncertainties, Zacarelli offered a straightforward explanation: stock prices track earnings growth. For the time being, the upward earnings momentum is too strong for investors to ignore, driving the ongoing stock rally.
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