Iranian Situation Boosts Global Stock Markets, Oil Prices Fall, Yen Strengthens

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U.S. President Trump recently suggested that “significant progress” has been made in reaching a final agreement with Iran. This statement became a crucial turning point in the global financial markets — it not only injected new momentum into the market, which was already boosted by the rise in technology stocks, driving global stock markets to hit all-time highs, but also triggered a series of chain reactions such as falling crude oil prices and a strengthening yen.

In terms of stock markets, major global stock indices rose collectively. Among them, the MSCI Asia Stock Index climbed 1.8% to a record high, with technology stocks leading the gains and market optimism about the artificial intelligence (AI) sector rekindling. As an important benchmark for AI investment, South Korea’s KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) surged more than 6% to an all-time high; its component stock Samsung Electronics saw its share price soar 15%, with its market value successfully exceeding $1 trillion, becoming the second Asian company to reach this milestone, mainly driven by the explosive growth in demand for AI chips.

Affected by Trump’s remarks, the market generally expected tensions in the Middle East to ease, putting pressure on international oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell 1.7% to close at around $108 per barrel. At the same time, there were significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: the yen rose 1% against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar weakened against all G10 (Group of Ten) currencies. Notably, Japan had just implemented its first foreign exchange market intervention in nearly two years to boost its currency, and the strengthening of the yen this time also echoed changes in market risk appetite.

Falling oil prices further improved market expectations, and coupled with the continued strength of technology stocks, the MSCI Global Stock Index also hit a record high. Wall Street stock indices also closed at all-time highs on Tuesday. After the U.S. stock market closed, AMD and Super Micro Computer reported better-than-expected results, which further boosted market risk appetite and drove Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.6%. Analysts believe that after the reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, the decline in energy costs and the reduction in market uncertainty have not only improved expectations for global economic growth but also provided support for the stock market; at the same time, the recovery in AI-related transactions, the easing of inflationary pressures and the improvement in market sentiment have jointly enhanced investors’ confidence in corporate profitability.

Regarding the progress of negotiations with Iran, Trump did not disclose specific details, and his statement this time was completely different from that of a few days ago — he had previously expressed dissatisfaction with the slow progress of negotiations and suggested that he was not satisfied with the proposals from Tehran. Trump also stated that he would suspend the U.S.-led operation to help ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz leave, to wait and see the progress of the agreement, but the U.S. blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports will “remain fully effective”. It is reported that the U.S. and Iran have held multiple indirect negotiations on the nuclear issue since 2025, and in February 2026, the Iranian president also ordered the launch of special negotiations. There is no clear information to confirm the “significant progress” mentioned by Trump this time.

In other markets, China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index resumed trading after the local holiday, rising 1.5%, continuing the common post-holiday upward trend of the CSI 300 Index. The bond market was also boosted by falling oil prices: U.S. long-term bonds rebounded during New York trading hours, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell below 5%; however, bond traders are still increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve’s next policy move may be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. Due to a Japanese holiday, cash trading of U.S. Treasury bonds was suspended during Asian trading hours, and Treasury bond futures rose simultaneously.

The precious metals and cryptocurrency markets showed a differentiated trend: gold prices rose 1.9% to close at around $4,640 per ounce; Bitcoin, on the other hand, weakened slightly to around $81,500 per ounce.

[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.

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