02/04/2026
1. Market Overview
On the 1-hour timeframe, XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar) is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with bullish momentum experiencing a phased slowdown. As of the latest candle, the price stands at 4762.38. After a sustained unilateral uptrend that reached a multi-period high, the market has entered a tug-of-war between bulls and bears at elevated levels, with a pullback and consolidation underway.
2. Key Technical Indicator Analysis
1. Price & Trend Structure
- The price has been trending steadily higher along the red ascending trendline, forming a clear bullish channel, and the overall bullish dominance remains intact.
- Recently, after hitting the upper boundary of the channel, the price has pulled back, with candlesticks shifting from consecutive large bullish candles to a choppy pattern of alternating green and red candles, signaling a clear weakening of upward momentum and an increased need for a retest of the trendline support.
- Key Support Levels: 4750-4755 (immediate trendline support + previous consolidation platform upper edge), strong support at 4720-4730 (previous consolidation range during the uptrend, a critical bullish defense level); Key Resistance Levels: 4780-4785 (the recent swing high, a key level for bullish breakout).
2. Moving Averages
- The short-term red moving average and the medium-to-long-term blue moving average maintain a bullish alignment, with the moving averages continuing to diverge upward. This confirms that the medium-term uptrend remains unbroken, and the current pullback is a technical correction within the uptrend.
- The price is currently retracing to the short-term moving average. If it stabilizes around this moving average support, bulls are likely to resume the upward move; a decisive break below the short-term MA will significantly increase the probability of a deeper pullback to the medium-to-long-term MA.
3. RSI & MACD Indicators
- RSI(14): The current reading is approximately 61.87, still in the bullish zone (50-70), but it has pulled back from the overbought territory. This indicates that bullish momentum has cooled from extreme strength to moderate, creating inherent pressure for a technical pullback.
- MACD(12,26,9): The DIF line (33.038) and DEA line (37.513) remain above the zero line, preserving the overall bullish trend. However, the MACD histogram is shrinking continuously, and the DIF line is showing signs of turning down to form a death cross with the DEA line, clearly signaling diminishing upward momentum and growing short-term correction pressure.
3. Comprehensive Outlook & Trading Strategy
1. Trend Qualification
The medium-term bullish trend remains fully intact, and the current high-level consolidation is a correction within the uptrend, not a trend reversal. The core trading strategy is buy on dips, with caution against chasing highs at elevated levels.
2. Key Trading Reference
- Long Opportunity: When the price retraces to the 4750-4755 support zone, if bullish reversal signals appear (such as small bullish candles, hammer candlesticks) and indicators show a momentum recovery, enter a long position with a stop-loss below 4745. The first target is 4775-4780, with a follow-up target of 4790+ if the resistance is broken.
- Short Opportunity: When the price rallies to the 4775-4780 resistance zone and fails to break through, enter a cautious short position with a stop-loss above 4785. The target is 4755-4750, with a further target of 4730 if the support is broken.
- Risk Warning: A decisive break below the 4750 support, coupled with a confirmed MACD death cross, will expand the short-term correction range, with a high risk of a drop to the 4720-4730 strong support. A strong break above the 4785 swing high will open up a new round of upside, and traders should follow the trend for long positions.
3. Forward Outlook
The core medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, and the current high-level consolidation is a technical repair after the rapid rally. Going forward, focus on the validity of the 4750 support and the breakout of the 4780 resistance. If the support holds, gold is expected to resume its uptrend and challenge higher price levels; if the support fails, the market will enter a range-bound consolidation, waiting for a new directional signal.
[Disclaimer] Forex trading involves risk; please invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only, and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.
