Gold Under Pressure as US Treasury Yields Rise, Markets Await US Economic Data

XAUUSD gold remained under pressure in overnight trading and hovered near the $4122 level. Weighed by rebounding US Treasury yields and improved risk appetite, safe-haven buying waned, and gold ended its prior rebound to resume weakening.

Fundamental Analysis

The US Dollar Index stayed moderately strong. The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold. Global risk sentiment improved alongside a rebound in Asian equities, triggering capital outflows from safe-haven assets and adding downward pressure on bullion.

Markets continue to price in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations. Traders are evaluating how US inflation and employment figures will shape the Fed’s interest-rate path. On the geopolitical front, the safe-haven premium from the Middle East conflict has eased, failing to deliver sustained strong support for gold prices in the short term.

Investors will focus on a batch of US economic releases this week. The data will reshape market expectations over the timing of Fed rate cuts, serving as the core driver for gold volatility in the near term.

Technical Analysis (Daily Chart + 4-Hour Chart)

Daily Chart The medium-term downtrend from the highs remains intact. The Bollinger Bands expand downward, and price trades below the middle band. RSI(14) stands at 41.61, neutral-to-bearish and not yet oversold. MACD sits below the zero line with slightly expanding green bars, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Key daily support: $4100; major resistance: $4145.

4-Hour Chart On the 4-hour timeframe, consecutive bearish candles are observed, with price moving near the lower Bollinger Band. The short-term downtrend is clear. RSI(14) is 39.57, edging toward oversold territory. MACD trades below zero, maintaining bearish momentum. 4-hour key support: $4110; primary resistance: $4135; secondary resistance: $4145.

Scenario Analysis

✅ Bullish Scenario: If gold holds firmly above $4135, bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart will fade, paving the way for a rebound toward $4145. Trigger conditions: falling US Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar, and rising safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks.

✅ Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below $4110 will open further downside, targeting the $4100 level. Trigger conditions: stronger-than-expected US economic data, delayed Fed rate-cut expectations, and further increases in Treasury yields.

Trading Strategy Outlook

1. Swing Traders (Daily Timeframe) The medium-term trend leans bearish. Swing traders may look for potential short opportunities on rallies toward the $4145 resistance zone. Bottom-fishing long positions are not recommended. Long entries require clear reversal candlestick signals on the daily chart. Breakout trading is preferred over range-bound strategies for now.
2. Short-Term Traders (4-Hour Timeframe) The short-term trend is bearish. Short opportunities may be considered if price rallies to the $4130–$4135 zone and shows rejection. If price dips quickly to $4110 and reveals stabilization signals, traders may trade a short bounce with strict stop-loss rules.

Key Events to Watch

US economic data releases, Fed official speeches, real-time US Treasury yield movements, and breaking news from the Middle East.

Risk Disclaimer

This article is for market commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. Forex and precious metals trading carry substantial risks. Prices may shift rapidly due to breaking news, economic data and liquidity changes, and technical patterns may fail in the short run. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always apply capital management and risk controls when trading.