25-03-2026      from：www.fxcg.com   author: FXCG
Boosted by expectations of easing tensions in Iran, significant volatility has emerged in the global financial markets: oil prices have dropped sharply, stock markets around the world have generally risen, and the US dollar has edged lower. This market reaction is mainly due to the market’s optimistic attitude towards the diplomatic efforts made by the US government to resolve the nearly one-month-old Middle East conflict.
Specifically, there is a distinct divergence in the performance of commodities and stock markets: Brent crude oil prices fell by as much as 6.6% at one point to $97.57 per barrel; at the same time, Asian stock market indices rose by 1.6%. The market generally believes that if the Iran conflict de-escalates, it will effectively ease global inflationary pressures, thereby reducing the need for central banks around the world to continue implementing monetary tightening policies, which is also the core reason for the rise in stock markets and the decline in oil prices. In addition, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.3%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 2 basis points to 4.34%.
Media reports on US-Iran diplomatic negotiations have further strengthened market optimism. According to The New York Times, the United States has submitted a 15-point peace plan to Iran; Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the United States is seeking to promote a one-month ceasefire to create space for negotiations between the two sides. Affected by this, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.9%.
It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz remains the core focus of market attention — this waterway is crucial for the free flow of oil in the Middle East, and its navigation status directly affects the global oil supply pattern. Despite the significant drop in oil prices on Wednesday, Brent crude oil has still risen by as much as 61% so far this year, highlighting the continuous impact of the previous Middle East conflict on the energy market.
“Crude oil prices remain the most watched indicator in this news-driven market,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Reports of a possible 30-day ceasefire agreement have eased concerns about extreme oil price increases and demand contraction, and signs that a ceasefire agreement may be reached have also reduced some risk premiums in the market.”
Looking back at recent market performance, since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, the global financial markets have been in a state of severe volatility. Affected by various relevant news reports, market fluctuations have been frequent, and many traders have been forced to stop losses and exit the market. The sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have further increased the difficulty of market risk assessment — the surge in commodity prices has intensified global inflation concerns, and also made the market worry that policymakers may maintain high borrowing costs or even further tighten monetary policy.
The United States has clearly stated that “diplomatic channels are still possible” to resolve the current conflict. US President Trump said that Iran has sent a “gift” to the United States to express its sincerity in negotiations, and this gift is related to the traffic passage of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios, the United States and regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks as early as Thursday, and are currently waiting for a response from Tehran. Trump also revealed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and relevant envoys are all involved in the negotiations.
In addition to crude oil, stock markets and foreign exchange markets, other markets have also experienced varying degrees of volatility: gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, currently trading at around $4,570 per ounce; Bitcoin prices climbed to around $71,000.
It is important to be vigilant that although optimism about diplomatic negotiations is rising, the Middle East conflict has not completely stopped. Kuwait’s aviation regulator said on Wednesday that an oil tank at the country’s airport was attacked by a drone and caught fire, and the authorities are currently fully handling the relevant matters. At the same time, Israel stated that it has launched a series of air strikes on multiple targets in Tehran, Iran, indicating that there are still uncertainties in the regional situation.
In addition, there are new developments at the geopolitical level. According to people familiar with the matter, the Trump administration has ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy about 2,000 soldiers to the Middle East region, and the White House is weighing various options through this move to reduce Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. As the world’s most important maritime energy channel, the Strait of Hormuz has always been the core focus of the current Middle East conflict.
At the same time, Iran is also strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to people familiar with the matter, Iran has begun to collect transit fees from some merchant ships passing through the strait, which is the latest move to strengthen its control over this key energy channel. However, Tehran stated that foreign ships from non-hostile countries can pass through the waterway in accordance with the conditions set by Iran. It is reported that the maximum single transit fee charged by Iran can reach 2 million US dollars, at least one oil tanker has completed the payment, and Iran has set up a “safe corridor” in the strait, allowing only pre-approved ships to pass.
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