Currently, the Israel-U.S.-Iran conflict remains a core factor affecting market sentiment in the United States and even globally, and concerns over energy price fluctuations and inflation will continue to attract market attention.

The United States will release relatively limited economic data in the near term, with the following key focus areas: first, the preliminary March S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an internationally recognized macroeconomic monitoring indicator that will intuitively present an early overall overview of U.S. business activities; second, the February foreign trade price data, with the market expecting import prices to rise by 0.2%, the same as the increase in January. In addition, the fourth-quarter current account balance, construction spending, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the manufacturing indices of the Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed, as well as the final data on fourth-quarter productivity and labor costs, are also worthy of key attention. Notably, the final reading of the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be closely tracked, especially since its preliminary value has shown early signs of market tension related to the Middle East crisis.

For other countries in the Americas, the Bank of Mexico will announce its latest monetary policy decision, along with the simultaneous release of trade data and mid-month inflation data; in the Brazilian market, investors will mainly focus on the release of mid-month inflation data and trade data.

Major European economies including the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom will successively release preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings. According to market expectations, manufacturing in Germany, France, and the Eurozone will contract, while the UK manufacturing growth rate will slow down; in the service sector, French services are expected to contract further, and the growth rates of services in Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will show a slowing trend.

As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany’s economic sentiment indicators have attracted much attention. Among them, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index is expected to drop to its lowest level in two years. This index, based on questionnaires of German consumers, is a leading indicator for predicting residents’ consumption trends; the Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to fall to its lowest level in 11 months. Compiled by the German Ifo Institute for Economic Research, this index covers multiple fields including manufacturing, construction, and retail, and is an important leading indicator for observing Germany’s economic situation. The decline in this data reflects the heavy blow to market sentiment caused by the escalation of the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index is also expected to decline, highlighting the regional economic downward trend triggered by geopolitical tensions.

Among other European countries, Spain will release preliminary March inflation data, with the overall inflation rate expected to rise slightly to 2.4%; in the UK, the February Consumer Price Inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3%, and the core inflation rate will stay at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the key retail sales report will be released soon, and the market expects sales to decline month-on-month after two consecutive months of growth.

In terms of monetary policy, Norges Bank will hold an interest rate decision meeting. Earlier, several central banks in the region kept interest rates unchanged earlier this week, citing new uncertainties brought to the inflation outlook by the Iran conflict.

At the political level, investors will closely monitor Denmark’s early parliamentary election. It is reported that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her led Social Democrats are expected to suffer their worst election result in more than a century. However, as U.S. President Trump once again attempts to take control of Greenland, Frederiksen’s tough stance in responding to this issue has become the focus of the election, and she is expected to continue in office. This early election is believed to be Frederiksen’s hope to take advantage of the window of rising approval ratings brought by the Greenland issue to boost her party’s election prospects.

China will release relatively light economic data in the near term, with only the February industrial profit data worthy of attention.

The focus of the Japanese market will be on the February inflation data, with the core inflation rate expected to drop from 2% to 1.7%; at the same time, the market will also pay attention to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s January meeting and the March PMI report, and the growth rate of Japan’s manufacturing activity is expected to slow down only slightly.

India and Australia will release March PMI data. Among them, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates for the second consecutive time (increasing the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%) due to continued pressure on prices. This interest rate hike is mainly to cope with the pressure of rising inflation and prevent long-term inflation expectations from rising. Therefore, the February inflation data has attracted much attention, and the market expects the overall inflation rate to remain unchanged at 3.8%.

For other parts of the Asia-Pacific region, Singapore will release inflation data; Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong (China), and the Philippines are expected to release trade data; South Korea will announce the Producer Price Index, as well as consumer and business confidence indices.

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