In the US, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Focus will be on the Fed’s latest economic projections and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Investors will be looking for the Fed’s view on the inflation risks posed by US-Iran tensions, which have disrupted the global oil supply chain, and their impact on future monetary policy. This week is packed with economic data, including the February Producer Price Index (PPI) and industrial production data. The PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in February, down from 0.5% in January; industrial production is expected to grow 0.2%, following a strong 0.7% increase in January. The number of homes for sale is likely to continue to decline, while regional manufacturing indices, including those from the New York Empire State and Philadelphia Fed, are expected to slow. Other data to watch include new home sales, factory orders, capital flows, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, and wholesale inventories. The market will also focus on Nvidia’s annual GTC conference, which may provide further insights into the future development of artificial intelligence. In other parts of the Americas, the central banks of Canada and Brazil will announce their monetary policy decisions. Canadian interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for the third consecutive time, while Brazilian policymakers may cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points. Market observers will also closely watch Canadian inflation, retail sales, new home prices, and housing starts data, as well as Brazil’s business confidence index and GDP data from Argentina and Chile.

European monetary policy will be very active this week, with several central banks announcing interest rate decisions. The market widely expects the European Central Bank to keep its key interest rate unchanged, with the deposit rate expected to remain at 2%. Investors will be looking for clues about the economic outlook for the remainder of the year, as the market anticipates the ECB may raise borrowing costs later in 2026 due to concerns about the impact of the Iranian conflict and its resulting energy price increases on the economy. The Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, although the market currently expects it to cut rates to 3.50% in April or June. In Switzerland, policymakers are expected to keep borrowing costs at the current 0%, while the Russian central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The Swedish central bank will also announce its monetary policy decision. On the data front, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to decline sharply due to the escalating conflict with Iran. Other data releases include Eurozone final inflation data, wage growth data, current account and trade data, the German producer price index, and Italy’s trade balance and final inflation data. In the UK, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.2%, while wage growth may slow. Public sector borrowing is also expected to decline last month.

In China, investors will assess the monthly economic data releases, which will provide an up-to-date picture of the country’s economic development. Industrial production growth for the first two months of this year is expected to be 5.1%, lower than the 5.9% growth in the same period last year; retail sales growth is expected to be 2.5%, significantly lower than the 4% growth projected for the first two months of 2025. Next week will also see the release of unemployment rate, fixed asset investment, and housing price data, and the People’s Bank of China will announce the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR). In addition, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant in France from March 15 to 16 to discuss trade issues. This follows a meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump in Beijing later this month. In Japan, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its policy rate at 0.75%. However, the depreciation of the yen and soaring oil prices have sparked speculation that the Bank of Japan may need to accelerate its policy normalization process. Key data releases next week include trade data, with the country’s February trade deficit expected to narrow significantly, while machinery orders may decline. A Reuters Tankan survey and final industrial production data will also be released. Meanwhile, India will release its February trade and unemployment data, with wholesale price inflation expected to rise to 2%. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points following its February hike. February employment data will also be released, with an expected increase of approximately 20,000 jobs and a possible slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand will release trade data, while Malaysia and Hong Kong will release inflation data. New Zealand will also release GDP data. Finally, the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan will announce their monetary policies.

[Disclaimer] Foreign exchange trading involves risk; invest with caution. This content is for informational purposes and objective analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice, basis for buying/selling, or guarantee of returns. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, and bear their own investment risks.