In the US, as in other global markets, developments in the Middle East are likely to be the focus of news in the coming week. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of easing tensions and the potential resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On the data front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show an annual inflation rate rising slightly to 2.5% from 2.4%, while the monthly increase is expected to remain stable at 0.2%. Core inflation is also expected to remain at 2.5%. The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP may confirm that economic growth has slowed to an annualized level of 1.4%. Meanwhile, the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in overall prices, while core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%. Among other indicators, durable goods orders are expected to rebound 1.2% in January, while existing home sales in February are expected to fall to 3.9 million units (annualized), following an 8.4% decline in January as high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March is expected to decline slightly to 56.3 in its preliminary reading, while the January trade deficit is likely to narrow slightly to $69 billion. Other important data releases include JOLTS job openings, building permits, housing starts, the monthly budget report, consumer inflation expectations, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. On the corporate front, companies planning to release quarterly results include Oracle, HP, UiPath, Adobe, and Wheaton Precious Metals. In other parts of the Americas, Canada will release its employment report and foreign trade data, Mexico will release inflation data, and Brazil will release inflation and retail sales data.

The UK’s January monthly GDP data is expected to show the economy expanding for the third consecutive month, with both industrial and manufacturing output rebounding. Trade data and the British Retail Consortium’s retail sales monitoring report will also be released simultaneously. German industrial production is expected to rebound in January, while factory orders data, which were previously delayed, are expected to decline after four consecutive months of growth. Germany’s January trade surplus is expected to narrow to €15.2 billion, a decrease compared to the same period last year. France’s trade deficit is also expected to narrow. Key data from other parts of the Eurozone includes Eurozone industrial production, German wholesale prices, Italian producer prices and industrial output, and the Swiss consumer confidence index. Final CPI figures for Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Sweden, as well as inflation data for Norway and Denmark, will also be released. Sweden will also release its monthly GDP data, while Turkey will release its industrial production data. Russia’s inflation rate is expected to fall to 5.7%. Regarding monetary policy, the Turkish central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate unchanged after five consecutive rate cuts.

In China, investors will continue to focus on the progress of the National People’s Congress, which is currently underway next week. Previously, Beijing lowered its 2026 economic growth target to 4.5% to 5%. China will also release its February inflation data, with the overall CPI expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.8%, while the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may slow slightly to 1.1%. Trade data for the first two months of this year will also be released, with the trade surplus expected to increase by approximately $12 billion year-on-year, reaching $182 billion. Monetary and credit indicators will also be closely watched, with new RMB loans expected to decline in February, partly due to seasonal weakness following the Lunar New Year holiday. In Japan, final data showed Q4 2025 economic growth of 0.3%, higher than the previously estimated 0.1%, primarily driven by increased capital expenditure. Household spending is expected to rebound by 0.8% in January, and the producer price index is expected to rise by 0.1% in February. The market will also focus on machine tool orders, coincident and leading economic indicators, and the current account balance. In Australia, investors will assess consumer and business confidence indicators, consumer inflation expectations, and the number of final building permits. Elsewhere in the region, India will release inflation data, and Taiwan will release trade data. South Korea will also release its final Q4 GDP data. Finally, the market widely expects the State Bank of Pakistan to maintain its policy rate at 10.5% at its meeting next week.